Mapping Morocco's macroeconomic vulnerabilities
Global risk level
ElevatedThe external pillar signals a clear vulnerability, with a trade imbalance that is only partially absorbed by reserves. The unemployment rate is in an elevated zone and signals persistent labour market fragility. Low inflation risk nevertheless plays a buffering role in the aggregate reading. Vulnerabilities are no longer isolated and are starting to reinforce one another across pillars. Overall, global risk stands at an elevated level.
Inflation Risk
cpi.yoy.m
Current value: 0.6% (July 2026)
External Risk
trade.deficit.m + reserves.months.m
Trade deficit (MAD M) (monthly flow): 26,056 MAD M (February 2026)
Reserves (months of imports): 5.5 months (July 2025)
Fiscal Risk
fiscal.deficit.gdp.a
Current value: -3.5% (2025)
Labour Market Risk
unemployment.national.q
Current value: 12.9% (2025)
Inflation risk remains low. At -0.6%, the KPI stands below the 2% threshold. This pillar remains in a low zone and is not a driver of deterioration in global risk.
External risk stands at an elevated level. The trade deficit stands at 26,056 MAD M. Reserves cover 5.5 months of imports and leave the risk signal unchanged. This pillar is one of the priority watch areas in the current reading.
Fiscal risk remains moderate. The signed fiscal balance stands in the -3 to -5% of GDP band, at -3.5%. This pillar remains in a moderate zone and mainly calls for regular monitoring.
Labour market risk stands at an elevated level. The unemployment rate stands in the 12-15% band, at 12.9%. This pillar is one of the priority watch areas in the current reading.
| Risk pillar | Level |
|---|---|
| Inflation Risk | Low |
| External Risk | Elevated |
| Fiscal Risk | Moderate |
| Labour Market Risk | Elevated |
The Risk Indicator maps Morocco's macro vulnerabilities through four fixed pillars: inflation, external sector, public finances and labour market.
| Risk pillar | KPI | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation Risk | cpi.yoy.m | HCP |
| External Risk | trade.deficit.m (monthly flow) + reserves.months.m | Office des Changes + Bank Al-Maghrib |
| Fiscal Risk | fiscal.deficit.gdp.a | MEF / TGR |
| Labour Market Risk | unemployment.national.q | HCP |
Each pillar is classified through a fixed threshold grid. No statistical normalization, z-score or hidden weighting is used.
External risk follows a fixed two-step rule. First, the engine computes a base risk level from the absolute monthly trade-deficit flow.
Second, reserves adjust the base level: reserves at or above 6 months lower the level by one notch, reserves below 4 months raise it by one notch, and the result is clamped between Low and High.
The latest published observation is always used for both sub-indicators; no averaging is applied.
Global risk follows a hybrid rule set, not a weighted average. Any High pillar prevents the global level from staying below Elevated, and two High pillars immediately escalate the aggregate to High.
Two Elevated pillars are enough to classify the aggregate as Elevated, while one isolated Elevated pillar maps to Moderate. Two or more Moderate pillars also yield a Moderate reading.
The Risk Indicator is conceptually independent from the MEIT Score: it does not expose a numeric score and is never computed as 100 minus MEIT Score.
