Mapping Morocco's macroeconomic vulnerabilities
Global risk level
LowInflation remains in a low zone and does not currently constitute the main source of macro vulnerability. Low inflation risk nevertheless plays a buffering role in the aggregate reading. Pressures remain limited and are not concentrated across several pillars at the same time. Overall, global risk stands at a low level.
Inflation Risk
cpi.yoy.m
Current value: 0.9%
External Risk
trade.deficit.m + reserves.months.m
Fiscal Risk
fiscal.deficit.gdp.a
Current value: N/A
Labour Market Risk
unemployment.national.q
Current value: N/A
Inflation risk remains low. At 0.9%, the KPI stands below the 2% threshold. This pillar remains in a low zone and is not a driver of deterioration in global risk.
Data unavailable. This pillar is excluded from global aggregation until a usable published observation becomes available.
Data unavailable. This pillar is excluded from global aggregation until a usable published observation becomes available.
Data unavailable. This pillar is excluded from global aggregation until a usable published observation becomes available.
| Risk pillar | Level |
|---|---|
| Inflation Risk | Low |
| External Risk | N/A |
| Fiscal Risk | N/A |
| Labour Market Risk | N/A |
The Risk Indicator maps Morocco's macro vulnerabilities through four fixed pillars: inflation, external sector, public finances and labour market.
| Risk pillar | KPI | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation Risk | cpi.yoy.m | HCP |
| External Risk | trade.deficit.m + reserves.months.m | Office des Changes |
| Fiscal Risk | fiscal.deficit.gdp.a | MEF / TGR |
| Labour Market Risk | unemployment.national.q | HCP |
Each pillar is classified through a fixed threshold grid. No statistical normalization, z-score or hidden weighting is used.
External risk follows a fixed two-step rule. First, the engine computes a base risk level from the absolute trade deficit magnitude.
Second, reserves adjust the base level: reserves at or above 6 months lower the level by one notch, reserves below 4 months raise it by one notch, and the result is clamped between Low and High.
The latest published observation is always used for both sub-indicators; no averaging is applied.
Global risk follows a hybrid rule set, not a weighted average. Any High pillar prevents the global level from staying below Elevated, and two High pillars immediately escalate the aggregate to High.
Two Elevated pillars are enough to classify the aggregate as Elevated, while one isolated Elevated pillar maps to Moderate. Two or more Moderate pillars also yield a Moderate reading.
The Risk Indicator is conceptually independent from the MEIT Score: it does not expose a numeric score and is never computed as 100 minus MEIT Score.
